Ave's Plays

[averick]

Made some plays ytd that i will be putting in here.. future plays will come in here as well.

I will be mainly betting on stats (fouls corners bookings etc) when the EPL returns, all the best to everyone.

Here are ytd's plays(from Saturday's Official thread):

#1 Combo
England - Estonia Estonia<1 @ 1.07
Armenia - Serbia Armenia<1 @ 1.25
Azerbaijan - Portugal Azerbaijan<1 @ 1.19
Poland - Kazakhstan Kazakhstan<1 @ 1.19
K = 1.89

#2 Combo
Armenia - Serbia Serbia>1 @ 1.25
Azerbaijan - Portugal Portugal>1 @ 1.05
Croatia - Israel Croatia>1 @ 1.18
Poland - Kazakhstan Poland>1 @ 1.05
Italy - Georgia Georgia<1.5 @ 1.03
K = 1.67

#3 Spain >1 @ 1.60
Spain has scored in each of their last 7 intl matches, and scored at least 2 goals in 5 of those matches

All for 1 unit

Results
#1 win at 1.59 odds with kazakhstan scoring 1 goal +0.59
#2 lost (damn serbia..) -1
#3 win (denmark 1-3 spain) +0.60

YTD 2-1-0 +0.19units

 

[averick]

Macau vs Thailand

WC-2010 Qualifiers (2nd leg)

Thailand will be without 8 of their national players and the coach will also be changing 6 of the players that beat Macau 6-1 at home in the first leg.

I'm thinking of taking Macau (+3.5) or Total goals <4 based on the following:

1. Pitch is bumpy and might affect Thailand's style of play
2. With the huge 6-1 lead from the first leg there is little incentive to push for a big win
3. Thailand has 8 national players missing
4. The coach has already expressed concerned over the fitness and fatigue of his players when they have to play in the Thailand Premier League next week.
A more laid-back approach might be adopted.

Slightly more value on the total goals under (1.95) while Macau (+3.5) is at 1.75.

Your comments are much appreciated.

P.S. The new thread created was an accident... sorry for the double post.

 

[averick]

RHB Singapore Cup - Tampines Rovers vs Bangkok University FC

#4 Tampines Rovers (-1) @ 1.85

BUFC are 2006 Thai League Champs while Tampines Rovers are currently second in the S. League. Both teams are participated in this year's AFC Champions League.

For the first leg, Bangkok University will be missing two key players – Patiparn Phetphun and Suriya Domtaisong, both of whom are on national duty. Tampines Rovers, on the other hand, will be missing winger Santi Chayaphuak and the defensive trio of Zulkarnaen Zainal, Satria Mad and Shariff Abdul Samat.

I have taken a look at the probable line-ups of both teams and Tampines Rovers have a strong team even without their missing players.

BUFC got past 2 mediocre Singapore teams in the previous rounds but this will be a much stiffer test. The match will be played at Tampines Stadium, and even though home advantage counts for little within the S League, Tampines will have a slight advantage over their visting Thai opponents.

I do not see Tampines winning by a large margin as BUFC are not a poor team. Tampines for the straight win is at rather short odds of 1.50, so i will take the -1 AH at 1.85 with the confidence of getting at least a push.

Match starts at 1945 GMT +8, in approximately 2h15min.

 

[averick]

note that #4 was for 1 unit.

#5 Combo 0.5 units

15.10.2007 21:00
Macau (+4) - Thailand
1.40

15.10.2007 20:45
Tampines - Bangkok U
1.50

K = 2.10

I do not see Macau losing by more than 4, Tampines should be strong enough to overcome Bangkok.

i am still unsure as to whether i will play Macau (+3.5) or total <4, if i am not convinced of either line then i will just let the game pass.

 

[averick]

48' Macau 0-4 (0-3) Thailand

All i've got to say is that the Macau soccer team is pretty horrendous lol

 

[averick]

67' Macau 0-6 (0-3) Thailand

Luckily i didn't have a good feeling on the dog handicap and didn't bet on it..

#5 lost -0.5

YTD 2-2-0 -0.31 units

 

[averick]

RHB Singapore Cup - Tampines Rovers vs Bangkok University FC

#4 Tampines Rovers (-1) @ 1.85

BUFC are 2006 Thai League Champs while Tampines Rovers are currently second in the S. League. Both teams are participated in this year's AFC Champions League.

For the first leg, Bangkok University will be missing two key players – Patiparn Phetphun and Suriya Domtaisong, both of whom are on national duty. Tampines Rovers, on the other hand, will be missing winger Santi Chayaphuak and the defensive trio of Zulkarnaen Zainal, Satria Mad and Shariff Abdul Samat.

I have taken a look at the probable line-ups of both teams and Tampines Rovers have a strong team even without their missing players.

BUFC got past 2 mediocre Singapore teams in the previous rounds but this will be a much stiffer test. The match will be played at Tampines Stadium, and even though home advantage counts for little within the S League, Tampines will have a slight advantage over their visting Thai opponents.

I do not see Tampines winning by a large margin as BUFC are not a poor team. Tampines for the straight win is at rather short odds of 1.50, so i will take the -1 AH at 1.85 with the confidence of getting at least a push.

Match starts at 1945 GMT +8, in approximately 2h15min.

Final score: Tampines-Bangkok U 2:0(0-0)

#4 win +0.85 units

YTD 3-2-0 +0.54 units

For those who are interested.. Macau Thailand finished 1-7.

 

[averick]

Couple of bets on UEFA Futsal.. these matches start in 20 minutes time. All these bets are on totals.

#6 Chrudim - S-M Bratislava >6 @ 1.80

#7 AlPoso - Gospic >6.5 @ 1.80

#8 Chorzow - Marbo >6 @ 1.90

 

[averick]

Futsal matches are rather high scoring and i have a good feeling on the over plays today.


Alposo are strong favourites in today's game and they won 5-1 yesterday. I see them scoring a few today and expect gospic to chip in with a few too.

Marbo was at the receiving end of a 5-1 defeat by Alposo yesterday, and even though they are not the favourites today this will be a more evenly matched game. They will score more than the single goal they managed yesterday. Chorzow drew 3-3 in the previous game against Gospic and i expect a similar performance today.

Might have a couple of early plays on the euro qualifiers, i currently see a couple of bets at decent odds which i expect to fall by tomorrow.

 

[averick]

Was good fade material today..

#6 push
#7 lost -1 unit
#8 lost -1 unit

YTD 3-4-1 -1.46 units

 

[averick]

#9 Venezuela - Argentina (-1) @ 1.60

#10 Georgia - Scotland (-1) @ 2.15

Argentina is a strong favourite today and i believe they will come off with a win. Venezuela has been improving over the past few years but they will not be able to keep up with Argentina for 90 minutes. Odds for a straight win are rather short so i'll take the -1 AH with the confidence of getting at least a push.

Scotland deserve qualification for euro 08 IMO after their brilliant run. It is unfortunate for them that Italy and France are in the group. The Scots have a couple of players suspended after picking up yellow cards at Ukraine, but Darren Fletcher will return against Georgia and he will be a huge boost to the team. A must win match for Scotland so as to keep them on top of the table and pile the pressure on Italy and France. While Georgia are relatively strong at home Scotland will start the match looking to win it and i don't see Georgia taking any points. Some value on the -1 AH so i'm taking it.

 

[averick]

#9 Venezuela - Argentina (-1) @ 1.60

Final score 0-2

#9 win +0.60

:money8:

YTD 4-4-1 -0.86 units

 

[averick]

#11 yellow cards Russia - England <4.5 @ 1.90

i'm always forgetting to put the units on my plays, so take everything as one unit unless i have specified (e.g. usually 0.5 units on combo bets)

Russia still in with a shout but a defeat will end any possibility of qualification for them. Obviously both teams will want to win this match, but they will still be satisfied with a draw.

Last match between them produced only 1 yellow card.. (Joe Cole), with the game only having 16 fouls. Between the 2 teams 19 games have been played, and only 26 yellow cards have been conceded. I do not foresee a no holds barred high adrenaline game later on today, and with that i do not expect more than 2-3 yellow cards, unless a mass brawl breaks out.

 

[averick]

#12 Russia - England Russia goals scored<1 @ 1.80

#13 Luxembourg - Romania (-2.5) @ 1.85

Russia at home but i expect this to be a low scoring match, and i will be surprised if Russia get 2 goals against the England defence.

England have some defensive concerns at the moment with regard to experience, and sol will be playing his second full match in 5 days, something he hasn't done for a long time. However i believe the most Russia will get is a goal.
This is despite 9 goals in their last 3 home games.

I think the most probable scorelines will be 0-1, 0-0, 1-1.

Luxembourg is definitely not going to win, however they managed to beat Belarus. In their past 5 EC Qualifier matches they have only managed to score 1 goal, against Belarus. Romania are no Belarus and are going to put a few past the minnows. Romania Holland and Bulgaria are all in with a shout for qualification, and Romania will not slacken off today as they look to keep their pole position in Group G.

I am leaning towards Slovenia AH +2 (2.00 odds) and +2.5 (1.60 odds) away against Holland due to Holland's poor recent scoring form. Anyone has thoughts on this?

I am taking a look at a small parlay on some team totals and will post once i have finalised them.

 

[averick]

#14 Albania - Bulgaria <2.5 @ 1.75 (1 unit)

#15 Combo bet (1 unit)

Liechtenstein - Iceland
Liechtenstein total goals <1.5 @ 1.18

Denmark - Latvia
Latvia total goals <1.5 @ 1.10

Luxembourg - Romania
Luxembourg total goals <0.5 @ 1.28

Brazil - Ecuador
Ecuador total goals <1.5 @ 1.11

K = 1.84

Bulgaria have scored just 5 goals in 4 away games and Albania have an even worse record, with 2 goals in 4 home games.

Bulgaria need to win this match to keep in touch with Holland and Romania, but Albania has only let in 3 goals in their 4 home games, and if Bulgaria win it it will probably be by a solitary goal. The previous meeting ended in a goalless draw.

I cannot see how Liechtenstein Latvia and Ecuador are going to manage 2 goals against their stronger opponents, while i feel that Luxembourg will draw another blank after all those celebrations after their first win in 12 years.

I originally had Scotland >1 goal and Faroe Islands <0.5 goals but took them out. I don't see how Faroe will score against Ukraine but Ukraine haven't been in the best form of late and are out of the Euro 08 qualification race. There might not be any motivation to play well so i dropped them.

That's it for the EC Qualifiers, BOL to everyone.

Any thoughts on Netherlands - Slovenia btw.. feels like a monologue in here.

I am leaning towards Slovenia AH +2 (2.00 odds) and +2.5 (1.60 odds) away against Holland due to Holland's poor recent scoring form. Anyone has thoughts on this?

 

[PRO11]

I really like the england pick! Let us know when your have your parlay ready! Thanks

 

[averick]

Thanks.. you referring to the yellow cards or the Russia<1?
Russia are now 1-0 down and hopefully they won't get into the referee's book for chasing the game.

I posted the parlay just before you posted.. check it out

 

[PRO11]

Im referring to the Russia<1! Yes they are down 0-1 Rooney min 29...

 

[averick]

Damn it which idiot gave away the Russian penalty can someone update me?

 

[averick]

#11 yellow cards Russia - England <4.5 @ 1.90
#12 Russia - England Russia goals scored<1 @ 1.80

Rooney turns from hero to zero.. and Robinson doesn't make a clean save for the second goal. Not sure whether the artificial pitch has anything to do with it.

Russia and England each get 2 yellow cards to make a total of 4.

#11 win +0.90 units
#12 lose -1 unit

YTD 5-5-1 -0.96 units